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Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht — Eredivisie 2018

Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Utrecht
Utrecht
11/26/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 13Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam42%
×Draw24%
Utrecht34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam
1.59
Utrecht
1.41

Sparta Rotterdam creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.43
Utrecht
1.35

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.46
Utrecht
1.75

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam-0.08on par
Utrecht+0.43scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw
66%
Sparta Rotterdam or Utrecht
76%
Draw or Utrecht
58%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
21%
Utrecht wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
80%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
47%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
21%
Utrecht 1+ goals
76%
Utrecht 2+ goals
41%
Utrecht 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
55%
Utrecht (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.75 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.43 + Utrecht defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Utrecht attack 1.35 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more
42%
level
24%
Utrecht scores more
34%

Sparta Rotterdam at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Utrecht

Utrecht beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 in Eredivisie on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam.