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Sparta Rotterdam vs Twente — Eredivisie 2018

Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Twente
Twente
12/17/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 16Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam37%
×Draw25%
Twente38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam
1.46
Twente
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.43
Twente
1.49

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.46
Twente
1.50

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam-0.08on par
Twente+0.42scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

Twente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw
62%
Sparta Rotterdam or Twente
75%
Draw or Twente
63%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
18%
Twente wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
77%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
43%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
18%
Twente 1+ goals
77%
Twente 2+ goals
43%
Twente 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
49%
Twente (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches

Twente away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.43 + Twente defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Twente attack 1.49 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more
37%
level
25%
Twente scores more
38%

Twente at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Twente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 Twente

Sparta Rotterdam and Twente drew 2-2 in Eredivisie on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam.