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Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen — Eredivisie 2026

Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Groningen
Groningen
V. van Crooij 90' (pen)
S. Mijnans 73'
R. Pepi 61'
9/17/2022EredivisieEredivisie · Round 7Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam41%
×Draw25%
Groningen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam
1.54
Groningen
1.39

Sparta Rotterdam creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.27
Groningen
1.40

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.37
Groningen
1.81

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam+0.12scores more
Groningen-0.58scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw
66%
Sparta Rotterdam or Groningen
75%
Draw or Groningen
59%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
20%
Groningen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
79%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
45%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
20%
Groningen 1+ goals
75%
Groningen 2+ goals
40%
Groningen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
54%
Groningen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 33 matches

Groningen away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.81 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.27 + Groningen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Groningen attack 1.40 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more
41%
level
25%
Groningen scores more
34%

Sparta Rotterdam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
V. van CrooijSparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam · F
8.3

Match Events

20'
Adil AuassarGoal cancelled
28'
Radinio Balker
61'
R. Pepi↳ I. Määttä
65'
F. Krüger← R. Pepi
73'
N. Kasanwirjo← I. Määttä
73'
S. Mijnans↳ V. van Crooij
76'
Y. Namli← K. Saito
76'
J. van Mullem← J. de Guzmán
79'
Marin Šverko
84'
Michael Verrips
89'
Tobias LauritsenPenalty confirmed
90'
A. Verschueren← S. Mijnans
90+2'
M. Eerdhuijzen← V. van Crooij
90'
M. Engels← T. Lauritsen
90+1'
R. Lundqvist← L. van Gelderen
90'
V. van CrooijPenalty

Possession

52%Sparta

Shots

9Sparta

Pass accuracy

50%Sparta

Statistics

SpartaGroningen
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots4
5Corners1
11Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots4
4On Target2
4Off Target1
1Blocked1
7Inside Box2
2Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
432Total Passes414
340Accurate Passes326
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards3
4Offsides0

Eredivisie: Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 Groningen

Sparta Rotterdam beat Groningen 2-1 in Eredivisie on September 17, 2022.

Goals: R. Pepi (61'), S. Mijnans (73'), V. van Crooij (90' pen).

Sparta Rotterdam controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 4.

The match was played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam.