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Sparta Rotterdam vs GO Ahead Eagles — Eredivisie 2018

Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
1/21/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 18Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam54%
×Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam
1.96
GO Ahead Eagles
1.26

Sparta Rotterdam creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.43
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.46
GO Ahead Eagles
2.49

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam-0.08on par
GO Ahead Eagles+0.29scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

GO Ahead Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw
76%
Sparta Rotterdam or GO Ahead Eagles
78%
Draw or GO Ahead Eagles
46%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
31%
GO Ahead Eagles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
86%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
58%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
31%
GO Ahead Eagles 1+ goals
72%
GO Ahead Eagles 2+ goals
36%
GO Ahead Eagles 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
69%
GO Ahead Eagles (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches

GO Ahead Eagles away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.49 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.43 + GO Ahead Eagles defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.96

GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.06 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more
54%
level
22%
GO Ahead Eagles scores more
24%

Sparta Rotterdam at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Rotterdam vs GO Ahead Eagles

GO Ahead Eagles beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 in Eredivisie on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam.