Sparta Praha W 10–0 Dukla Praha W: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha W

FT

10 – 0

Dukla Praha W

10/11/2020

1. Liga Women · Round 7TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sparta Praha W94%

×Draw5%

Dukla Praha W2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha WExpected goals in this matchDukla Praha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.38

0.58

Sparta Praha W

4.38

Dukla Praha W

0.58

Sparta Praha W creates 655% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

5.02

creates per match

0.53

0.63

allows per match

3.73

creates per match

Sparta Praha W

5.02

Dukla Praha W

0.53

allows per match

Sparta Praha W

0.63

Dukla Praha W

3.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha W+0.00on par

Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha W ↓

Dukla Praha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–013%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Sparta Praha W or draw

98%

Sparta Praha W or Dukla Praha W

95%

Draw or Dukla Praha W

6%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha W wins by 2+

83%

Dukla Praha W wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Sparta Praha W 1+ goals

99%

Sparta Praha W 2+ goals

92%

Sparta Praha W 3+ goals

78%

Dukla Praha W 1+ goals

44%

Dukla Praha W 2+ goals

12%

Dukla Praha W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)

98%

Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha W at home — creates 5.02, concedes 0.63 · 60 matches

Dukla Praha W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha W attack 5.02 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 4.38

Dukla Praha W attack 0.53 + Sparta Praha W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Sparta Praha W scores more

94%

level

5%

Dukla Praha W scores more

2%

Sparta Praha W at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Sparta Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff