Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Sparta Praha36%
Slavia Praha36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 6 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sparta Praha ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.74 · 6 matches
Slavia Praha away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.99 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sparta Praha attack 1.35 + Slavia Praha defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17
Slavia Praha attack 1.61 + Sparta Praha defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.18
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Sparta Praha at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Slavia Praha
PlzenSparta Praha
FK Jablonec
Slovan Liberec
Baník Ostrava
České Budějovice
Bohemians 1905
Slovácko
Mlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
Zlin
Karviná
Opava
PříbramIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shots
Statistics
Sparta Praha host Slavia Praha on Sunday, 3 October 2021 at 17:00. The match is part of the Czech Liga 2019/2020 season.
Czech Liga: Sparta Praha 1–0 Slavia Praha
Sparta Praha beat Slavia Praha 1-0 in Czech Liga on October 3, 2021.
Goals: L. Haraslín (42').
The match was played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena in Praha.