Sparta Praha 0–3 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Slavia Praha

L. Masopust 89'

M. Sáček 55' (OG)

T. Souček 19' (pen)

9/22/2019

Czech Liga · Round 10Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sparta Praha39%

×Draw27%

Slavia Praha35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.23

Sparta Praha

1.32

Slavia Praha

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.59

creates per match

1.67

0.78

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.59

Slavia Praha

1.67

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.78

Slavia Praha

1.05

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.21scores more

Slavia Praha+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

65%

Sparta Praha or Slavia Praha

73%

Draw or Slavia Praha

61%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

17%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

73%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

38%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

15%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

71%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

35%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

53%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.78 · 5 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.59 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.32

Slavia Praha attack 1.67 + Sparta Praha defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

39%

level

27%

Slavia Praha scores more

35%

Sparta Praha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

T. SoučekPenalty

31'

40'

43'

43'

55'

M. SáčekOwn goal

56'

S. Plavšić← M. Hanousek

66'

66'

68'

69'

70'

J. Zelený← N. Stanciu

75'

78'

82'

89'

89'

90+2'

Statistics

SpartaSlavia

Overview

3Corners3

Discipline

1Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1