Sparta Praha 1–1 Plzen: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Sparta Praha

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Plzen

J. Zelený 45+1'

T. Chorý 71'

5/26/2024

Czech Liga · Championship Round - 5epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sparta Praha54%

×Draw22%

Plzen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.21

Sparta Praha

1.91

Plzen

1.21

Sparta Praha creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.60

creates per match

1.45

0.97

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.60

Plzen

1.45

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.97

Plzen

2.22

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.03on par

Plzen-0.07on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Plzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

76%

Sparta Praha or Plzen

78%

Draw or Plzen

46%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

31%

Plzen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

85%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

57%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

30%

Plzen 1+ goals

70%

Plzen 2+ goals

34%

Plzen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

69%

Plzen (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 8 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.22 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.60 + Plzen defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.91

Plzen attack 1.45 + Sparta Praha defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

54%

level

22%

Plzen scores more

24%

Sparta Praha at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Červ

Plzen · M

7.9

Match Events

45+1'

J. Zelený↳ L. Krejčí

46'

R. Hranáč← J. Mosquera

46'

T. Chorý← I. Metsoko

51'

Lukáš Hejda

61'

A. Karabec← L. Haraslín

62'

J. Kliment← E. Jirka

71'

T. Chorý↳ Cadu

72'

V. Olatunji← J. Kuchta

78'

78'

78'

81'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaPlzen

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots14

2.79Expected Goals (xG)1.73

6Corners3

6Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots14

6On Target6

6Off Target6

4Blocked2

12Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

431Total Passes399

345Accurate Passes327

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0