Sparta Praha 2–1 Hradec Králové: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hradec Králové

3/17/2024

Czech Liga · Round 25epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sparta Praha61%

×Draw22%

Hradec Králové17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchHradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.86

Sparta Praha

1.88

Hradec Králové

0.86

Sparta Praha creates 119% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

0.86

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.43

Hradec Králové

0.86

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.86

Hradec Králové

2.34

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.28scores more

Hradec Králové-0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

83%

Sparta Praha or Hradec Králové

78%

Draw or Hradec Králové

39%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

36%

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

85%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

56%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

29%

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

58%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

21%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

79%

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.34 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.43 + Hradec Králové defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.88

Hradec Králové attack 0.86 + Sparta Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

61%

level

22%

Hradec Králové scores more

17%

Sparta Praha at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff