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Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 — Czech Liga 2019

Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
11/4/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 14epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sparta Praha48%
×Draw26%
Bohemians 190526%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha
1.49
Bohemians 1905
1.03

Sparta Praha creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha
1.43
Bohemians 1905
1.21

allows per match

Sparta Praha
0.86
Bohemians 1905
1.55

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.28scores more
Bohemians 1905-0.57scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Bohemians 1905 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw
74%
Sparta Praha or Bohemians 1905
74%
Draw or Bohemians 1905
52%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+
24%
Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals
77%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
44%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
19%
Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
64%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
28%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
65%
Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.43 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.21 + Sparta Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sparta Praha scores more
48%
level
26%
Bohemians 1905 scores more
26%

Sparta Praha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905

Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 in Czech Liga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at epet ARENA in Praha.