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Sparta Praha U19 vs Hradec Králové U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Sparta Praha U19
Sparta Praha U19
CANC
09:00
Hradec Králové U19
Hradec Králové U19
5/15/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 24TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sparta Praha U1959%
×Draw20%
Hradec Králové U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha U19
2.17
Hradec Králové U19
1.23

Sparta Praha U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 48 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha U19
2.28
Hradec Králové U19
1.44

allows per match

Sparta Praha U19
1.03
Hradec Králové U19
2.06

finishing

Sparta Praha U19+0.00on par
Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha U19 ↓

Hradec Králové U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sparta Praha U19 or draw
79%
Sparta Praha U19 or Hradec Králové U19
80%
Draw or Hradec Králové U19
41%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha U19 wins by 2+
36%
Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sparta Praha U19 1+ goals
89%
Sparta Praha U19 2+ goals
64%
Sparta Praha U19 3+ goals
36%
Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals
71%
Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals
35%
Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha U19 at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Hradec Králové U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha U19 attack 2.28 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.17

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.44 + Sparta Praha U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sparta Praha U19 scores more
59%
level
20%
Hradec Králové U19 scores more
21%

Sparta Praha U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sparta Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sparta Praha U19 face Hradec Králové U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Sparta Praha U19 hosting Hradec Králové U19. Match starts May 15, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sparta Praha U19 host Hradec Králové U19 at TC Strahov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.