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Sparta Nijkerk vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
CANC
00:00
VVOG
VVOG
5/16/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 33Sportpark De Ebbenhorst (Nijkerk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk61%
×Draw19%
VVOG20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Nijkerk
2.35
VVOG
1.28

Sparta Nijkerk creates 84% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk
2.29
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk
1.21
VVOG
2.41

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw
80%
Sparta Nijkerk or VVOG
81%
Draw or VVOG
39%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
39%
VVOG wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
90%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
68%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
41%
VVOG 1+ goals
72%
VVOG 2+ goals
37%
VVOG 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
75%
VVOG (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.35

VVOG attack 1.35 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more
61%
level
19%
VVOG scores more
20%

Sparta Nijkerk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sparta Nijkerk face VVOG (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with Sparta Nijkerk hosting VVOG. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sparta Nijkerk host VVOG at Sportpark De Ebbenhorst (Nijkerk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.