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Sparta Nijkerk vs SC Genemuiden — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SC Genemuiden
SC Genemuiden
11/4/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 11Sportpark De Ebbenhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk46%
×Draw23%
SC Genemuiden31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Nijkerk
1.79
SC Genemuiden
1.43

Sparta Nijkerk creates 25% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk
2.29
SC Genemuiden
1.65

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk
1.21
SC Genemuiden
1.29

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par
SC Genemuiden+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

SC Genemuiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw
69%
Sparta Nijkerk or SC Genemuiden
77%
Draw or SC Genemuiden
54%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
25%
SC Genemuiden wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
83%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
53%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
26%
SC Genemuiden 1+ goals
76%
SC Genemuiden 2+ goals
42%
SC Genemuiden 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
60%
SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

SC Genemuiden away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

SC Genemuiden attack 1.65 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more
46%
level
23%
SC Genemuiden scores more
31%

Sparta Nijkerk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Sparta Nijkerk 3–2 SC Genemuiden

Sparta Nijkerk beat SC Genemuiden 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Ebbenhorst in Nijkerk.