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Sparta Nijkerk vs Eemdijk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Eemdijk
Eemdijk
3/9/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 17Sportpark De Ebbenhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk52%
×Draw22%
Eemdijk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Nijkerk
2.02
Eemdijk
1.39

Sparta Nijkerk creates 45% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk
2.29
Eemdijk
1.57

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk
1.21
Eemdijk
1.76

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par
Eemdijk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

Eemdijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw
74%
Sparta Nijkerk or Eemdijk
78%
Draw or Eemdijk
48%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
30%
Eemdijk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
87%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
60%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
33%
Eemdijk 1+ goals
75%
Eemdijk 2+ goals
40%
Eemdijk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
66%
Eemdijk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Eemdijk away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + Eemdijk defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Eemdijk attack 1.57 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more
52%
level
22%
Eemdijk scores more
26%

Sparta Nijkerk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Nijkerk vs Eemdijk

Sparta Nijkerk and Eemdijk drew 2-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Ebbenhorst in Nijkerk.