Spal 2–3 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spal

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Brescia

M. Valoti 57', 7'

B. Bjarnason 87'

A. Donnarumma 70' (pen)

F. Jagiełło 56'

12/30/2020

Serie B · Round 16Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spal39%

×Draw27%

Brescia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpalExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.23

Spal

1.34

Brescia

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 116 away

1.41

creates per match

1.18

1.29

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Spal

1.41

Brescia

1.18

allows per match

Spal

1.29

Brescia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spal+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spal or draw

66%

Spal or Brescia

73%

Draw or Brescia

61%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+

18%

Brescia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals

74%

Spal 2+ goals

39%

Spal 3+ goals

15%

Brescia 1+ goals

71%

Brescia 2+ goals

35%

Brescia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)

54%

Brescia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.28 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 1.41 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Brescia attack 1.18 + Spal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spal scores more

39%

level

27%

Brescia scores more

34%

Spal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Valoti

Spal · F

8.9

Match Events

-5'

Andrea Ghezzi

7'

M. Valoti↳ L. Dickmann

44'

B. Salamon← N. Tomović

48'

Francesco Vicari

56'

F. Jagiełło↳ E. Torregrossa

57'

M. Valoti↳ L. Castro

61'

Jakub Labojko

66'

F. Di Francesco← L. Castro

66'

S. Floccari← A. Paloschi

66'

D. Bisoli← J. Łabojko

66'

A. Donnarumma← A. Ragusa

70'

A. DonnarummaPenalty

76'

B. Bjarnason← F. Jagiełło

76'

M. Mangraviti← N. Špalek

79'

E. Brignola← A. Murgia

79'

S. Missiroli← M. Valoti

84'

F. Ayé← E. Torregrossa

87'

B. Bjarnason↳ F. Ayé

90'

Luca Ranieri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpalBrescia

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots16

5Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots16

6On Target8

4Off Target5

5Blocked3

7Inside Box10

8Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

558Total Passes377

480Accurate Passes306

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Serie B: Spal 2–3 Brescia

Brescia beat Spal 3-2 in Serie B on December 30, 2020.

Goals: M. Valoti (7', 57'), F. Jagiełło (56'), A. Donnarumma (70' pen), B. Bjarnason (87').

Spal controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.

Spal vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Spal 2–3 Brescia