Spakenburg 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam II: Result & Stats

Spakenburg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sparta Rotterdam II

11/18/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 13Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Spakenburg49%

×Draw22%

Sparta Rotterdam II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpakenburgExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.50

Spakenburg

2.00

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.50

Spakenburg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 102 away

2.10

creates per match

1.75

1.26

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Spakenburg

2.10

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.75

allows per match

Spakenburg

1.26

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spakenburg+0.00on par

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spakenburg ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Spakenburg or draw

71%

Spakenburg or Sparta Rotterdam II

78%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II

51%

Winning margin

Spakenburg wins by 2+

28%

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spakenburg 1+ goals

86%

Spakenburg 2+ goals

59%

Spakenburg 3+ goals

32%

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals

78%

Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals

44%

Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Spakenburg (draw refunded)

63%

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spakenburg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spakenburg attack 2.10 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.75 + Spakenburg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spakenburg scores more

49%

level

22%

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more

29%

Spakenburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff