Spaeri 1–1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi: Result & Stats

Spaeri

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

3/5/2024

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 1Stadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Spaeri48%

×Draw24%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpaeriExpected goals in this matchLokomotivi Tbilisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.23

Spaeri

1.69

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.23

Spaeri creates 37% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 55 away

1.73

creates per match

1.22

1.24

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Spaeri

1.73

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.22

allows per match

Spaeri

1.24

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spaeri+0.00on par

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spaeri ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Spaeri or draw

72%

Spaeri or Lokomotivi Tbilisi

76%

Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi

52%

Winning margin

Spaeri wins by 2+

26%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spaeri 1+ goals

82%

Spaeri 2+ goals

50%

Spaeri 3+ goals

24%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals

71%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals

35%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Spaeri (draw refunded)

63%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spaeri at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spaeri attack 1.73 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.22 + Spaeri defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spaeri scores more

48%

level

24%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more

28%

Spaeri at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spaeri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff