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Soyaux W vs Stade de Reims W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Soyaux W
Soyaux W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stade de Reims W
Stade de Reims W
11/16/2019Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 9Stade Lebon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Soyaux W32%
×Draw24%
Stade de Reims W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soyaux W
1.40
Stade de Reims W
1.70

Stade de Reims W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 65 away

creates per match

Soyaux W
0.85
Stade de Reims W
1.31

allows per match

Soyaux W
2.09
Stade de Reims W
1.95

finishing

Soyaux W+0.00on par
Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soyaux W ↓

Stade de Reims W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Soyaux W or draw
55%
Soyaux W or Stade de Reims W
76%
Draw or Stade de Reims W
68%

Winning margin

Soyaux W wins by 2+
14%
Stade de Reims W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Soyaux W 1+ goals
75%
Soyaux W 2+ goals
41%
Soyaux W 3+ goals
17%
Stade de Reims W 1+ goals
82%
Stade de Reims W 2+ goals
51%
Stade de Reims W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Soyaux W (draw refunded)
42%
Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soyaux W at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches

Stade de Reims W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soyaux W attack 0.85 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stade de Reims W attack 1.31 + Soyaux W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Soyaux W scores more
32%
level
24%
Stade de Reims W scores more
45%

Stade de Reims W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stade de Reims W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Soyaux W 0–1 Stade de Reims W

Stade de Reims W beat Soyaux W 1-0 in Feminine Division 1 on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Lebon in Angoulême.