Southside Eagles 2–2 SC Wanderers: Result & Stats

Southside Eagles

FT

2 – 2

SC Wanderers

4/10/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 4Memorial Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Southside Eagles37%

×Draw23%

SC Wanderers40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southside EaglesExpected goals in this matchSC Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.69

Southside Eagles

1.60

SC Wanderers

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 40 away

1.58

creates per match

1.50

1.87

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Southside Eagles

1.58

SC Wanderers

1.50

allows per match

Southside Eagles

1.87

SC Wanderers

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southside Eagles ↓

SC Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Southside Eagles or draw

60%

Southside Eagles or SC Wanderers

77%

Draw or SC Wanderers

63%

Winning margin

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

18%

SC Wanderers wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

80%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

47%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

22%

SC Wanderers 1+ goals

82%

SC Wanderers 2+ goals

50%

SC Wanderers 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

48%

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches

SC Wanderers away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + SC Wanderers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

SC Wanderers attack 1.50 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Southside Eagles scores more

37%

level

23%

SC Wanderers scores more

40%

SC Wanderers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SC Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff