Southport 1–2 Kidderminster Harriers

Southport

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kidderminster Harriers

D. Morgan 18'

A. Hemmings 67'

K. Lowe 23'

3/7/2020

League #50 · North - 34Haig Avenue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Southport29%

×Draw24%

Kidderminster Harriers47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthportExpected goals in this matchKidderminster Harriers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.69

Southport

1.27

Kidderminster Harriers

1.69

Kidderminster Harriers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 8 away

1.42

creates per match

1.75

1.63

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Southport

1.42

Kidderminster Harriers

1.75

allows per match

Southport

1.63

Kidderminster Harriers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southport+0.00on par

Kidderminster Harriers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

Kidderminster Harriers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Southport or draw

53%

Southport or Kidderminster Harriers

76%

Draw or Kidderminster Harriers

71%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+

12%

Kidderminster Harriers wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals

72%

Southport 2+ goals

36%

Southport 3+ goals

14%

Kidderminster Harriers 1+ goals

82%

Kidderminster Harriers 2+ goals

50%

Kidderminster Harriers 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)

38%

Kidderminster Harriers (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Kidderminster Harriers away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.42 + Kidderminster Harriers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kidderminster Harriers attack 1.75 + Southport defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southport scores more

29%

level

24%

Kidderminster Harriers scores more

47%

Kidderminster Harriers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kidderminster Harriers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

23'

64'

67'

76'

A. Samuels← A. Hemmings

77'

C. Woods← R. Benjamin

86'

E. Freemantle← E. Williams

Southport

Kidderminster

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: L. Watson

77'▲C. Woods←▼R. Benjamin

Southport substitutes

WoodsParryAlbinsonWinnardMohammed

Manager: R. Penn

64'▲D. Weeks←▼A. Prosser

76'▲A. Samuels←▼A. Hemmings

86'▲E. Freemantle←▼E. Williams

Kidderminster Harriers substitutes

WeeksSamuelsFreemantleShentonJohnson