Southend 0–1 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Southend

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Forest Green

J. Young 63'

11/24/2020

League Two · Round 14Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Southend32%

×Draw28%

Forest Green40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.25

Southend

1.10

Forest Green

1.25

Forest Green creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 90 away

0.94

creates per match

1.36

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Southend

0.94

Forest Green

1.36

allows per match

Southend

1.13

Forest Green

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Southend or draw

60%

Southend or Forest Green

72%

Draw or Forest Green

68%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

13%

Forest Green wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

67%

Southend 2+ goals

30%

Southend 3+ goals

10%

Forest Green 1+ goals

71%

Forest Green 2+ goals

36%

Forest Green 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

45%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 0.94 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Southend defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Southend scores more

32%

level

28%

Forest Green scores more

40%

Forest Green at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

U. Godwin-Malife

Forest Green · D

7.5

Match Events

59'

A. Collins← D. Sweeney

59'

J. Young← O. Bailey

62'

Timothee Dieng

63'

J. Young↳ A. Collins

66'

K. Coker← M. Rush

71'

J. Richardson← K. Wilson

74'

A. McCormack← J. Demetriou

77'

E. Whitehouse← C. Winchester

88'

Alan McCormack

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthendForest

Overview

39%Possession61%

5Total Shots10

4Corners4

8Fouls16

Shots

5Total Shots10

0On Target3

3Off Target4

2Blocked3

3Inside Box8

2Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

317Total Passes493

211Accurate Passes386

67%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls16

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0