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Southampton vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Southampton
Southampton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
West Ham
West Ham
S. Haller 37'
12/14/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Southampton36%
×Draw24%
West Ham40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.52
West Ham
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.19
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Southampton
2.17
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Southampton+0.19scores more
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
60%
Southampton or West Ham
76%
Draw or West Ham
64%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
17%
West Ham wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
78%
Southampton 2+ goals
45%
Southampton 3+ goals
20%
West Ham 1+ goals
80%
West Ham 2+ goals
48%
West Ham 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
47%
West Ham (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 8 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.19 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

West Ham attack 1.06 + Southampton defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Southampton scores more
36%
level
24%
West Ham scores more
40%

West Ham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
S. HallerWest HamWest Ham · F
8.2

Match Events

37'
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
37'
S. Haller↳ Pablo Fornals
45'
Robert Snodgrass
46'
Oriol Romeu← N. Redmond
56'
Ryan Fredericks
73'
A. Yarmolenko← R. Snodgrass
79'
C. Sánchez← S. Haller
84'
S. Armstrong← S. Long
87'
C. Adams← Cédric Soares
88'
I. Diop← M. Noble
90'
David Martin

Possession

57%Southampton

Shots

11Southampton

Pass accuracy

54%Southampton

Statistics

SouthamptonWest
Overview
57%Possession43%
11Total Shots11
5Corners8
9Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots11
2On Target4
9Off Target3
0Blocked4
7Inside Box9
4Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
474Total Passes359
342Accurate Passes218
72%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Southampton vs West Ham

West Ham beat Southampton 1-0 in Premier League on December 14, 2019.

Goals: S. Haller (37').

Southampton controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.