Southampton 1–2 West Ham: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham

N. Redmond 50'

Felipe Anderson 59', 53'

12/27/2018

Premier League · Round 19St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Southampton36%

×Draw24%

West Ham40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.61

Southampton

1.52

West Ham

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

1.19

creates per match

1.06

2.17

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Southampton

1.19

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Southampton

2.17

West Ham

1.85

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Southampton+0.19scores more

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

60%

Southampton or West Ham

76%

Draw or West Ham

64%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

17%

West Ham wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

78%

Southampton 2+ goals

45%

Southampton 3+ goals

20%

West Ham 1+ goals

80%

West Ham 2+ goals

48%

West Ham 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

47%

West Ham (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 8 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.19 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

West Ham attack 1.06 + Southampton defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Southampton scores more

36%

level

24%

West Ham scores more

40%

West Ham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Felipe Anderson

West Ham · M

9.1

Match Events

50'

N. Redmond

53'

Felipe Anderson

55'

A. Carroll← G. Diangana

59'

Felipe Anderson↳ M. Antonio

62'

S. Long← D. Ings

66'

Matt Targett

78'

M. Noble← Lucas Pérez

80'

C. Austin← M. Yoshida

83'

Jan Bednarek

87'

M. Elyounoussi← M. Lemina

90+2'

A. Masuaku← R. Snodgrass

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonWest

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots16

4Corners6

10Fouls3

Shots

11Total Shots16

5On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked5

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

409Total Passes487

314Accurate Passes376

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls3

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2