Southampton 1–3 West Ham: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

West Ham

M. Gabbiadini 12'

M. Noble 52'

Pedro Obiang 44'

A. Carroll 14'

2/4/2017

Premier League · Round 24St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Southampton36%

×Draw24%

West Ham40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.61

Southampton

1.52

West Ham

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

1.19

creates per match

1.06

2.17

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Southampton

1.19

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Southampton

2.17

West Ham

1.85

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Southampton+0.19scores more

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

60%

Southampton or West Ham

76%

Draw or West Ham

64%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

17%

West Ham wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

78%

Southampton 2+ goals

45%

Southampton 3+ goals

20%

West Ham 1+ goals

80%

West Ham 2+ goals

48%

West Ham 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

47%

West Ham (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 8 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.19 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

West Ham attack 1.06 + Southampton defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Southampton scores more

36%

level

24%

West Ham scores more

40%

West Ham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Pedro Obiang

West Ham · M

9.1

Match Events

12'

M. Gabbiadini↳ J. Rodriguez

14'

A. Carroll↳ Pedro Obiang

44'

Pedro Obiang

46'

N. Redmond← J. Rodriguez

52'

M. Noble

56'

M. Lanzini← A. Carroll

63'

S. Long← S. Boufal

71'

J. Collins← C. Kouyaté

80'

Aaron Cresswell

88'

Winston Reid

90+1'

J. Calleri← S. Feghouli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonWest

Overview

55%Possession45%

21Total Shots6

3Corners2

12Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots6

7On Target4

11Off Target1

3Blocked1

13Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

474Total Passes390

388Accurate Passes296

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3