Southampton 3–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Swansea

S. Mané 61'

D. Tadić 54'

V. van Dijk 11'

G. Sigurðsson 83' (pen)

9/26/2015

Premier League · Round 7St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Southampton46%

×Draw25%

Swansea29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Southampton

1.52

Swansea

1.15

Southampton creates 32% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 74 away

1.34

creates per match

0.93

1.37

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Southampton

1.34

Swansea

0.93

allows per match

Southampton

1.37

Swansea

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

71%

Southampton or Swansea

75%

Draw or Swansea

54%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

23%

Swansea wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

78%

Southampton 2+ goals

45%

Southampton 3+ goals

20%

Swansea 1+ goals

68%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

61%

Swansea (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 169 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.34 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swansea attack 0.93 + Southampton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Southampton scores more

46%

level

25%

Swansea scores more

29%

Southampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

V. van Dijk

Southampton · D

8.2

Match Events

11'

V. van Dijk↳ J. Ward-Prowse

43'

Victor Wanyama

46'

Éder← B. Gomis

46'

J. Montero← J. Cork

54'

D. Tadić↳ G. Pellè

61'

S. Mané

63'

Oriol Romeu← S. Davis

74'

J. Rodriguez← D. Tadić

76'

Jonjo Shelvey

80'

L. Britton← J. Shelvey

81'

Oriol Romeu

83'

José Fonte

83'

G. SigurðssonPenalty

86'

Juanmi← S. Mané

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonSwansea

Overview

41%Possession59%

17Total Shots11

4Corners3

0Fouls0

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target4

8Off Target4

3Blocked3

13Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

380Total Passes542

287Accurate Passes452

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

0Fouls0

3Yellow Cards1

6Offsides3