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Southampton vs Preston — Championship 2025

Southampton
Southampton
Preview
15:00
Preston
Preston
1/30/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29
Big match
49%
Southampton
model favours
49%25%25%

Southampton score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Southampton49%
×Draw25%
Preston25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.55
Preston
1.04

Southampton creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.60
Preston
1.12

allows per match

Southampton
0.96
Preston
1.50

finishing

Southampton-0.49scores less
Preston+0.08on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
75%
Southampton or Preston
75%
Draw or Preston
51%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
25%
Preston wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
79%
Southampton 2+ goals
46%
Southampton 3+ goals
20%
Preston 1+ goals
65%
Preston 2+ goals
28%
Preston 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
66%
Preston (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 9 matches

Preston away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.60 + Preston defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Preston attack 1.12 + Southampton defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Southampton scores more
49%
level
25%
Preston scores more
25%

Southampton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Preston score first in only 17% of matches
  • Southampton have scored in 12 games running
  • 81% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Preston win just 21% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Southampton
Possession-dominant
Preston
Balanced
59%Possession45%
85%Pass accuracy71%
14.6Shots10.2
1.61xGBiggest gap1.01
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SouthamptonPreston

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Southampton
1
Draws
1
Preston
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 60%
3–10–23–02–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Southampton
DDWD
Preston
WLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Southampton vs Preston — Match Preview

Southampton face Preston on January 30, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.