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Southampton vs Norwich — Premier League 2026

Southampton
Southampton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
12/4/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Southampton54%
×Draw24%
Norwich22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.68
Norwich
0.98

Southampton creates 71% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 49 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.27
Norwich
0.55

allows per match

Southampton
1.42
Norwich
2.08

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
78%
Southampton or Norwich
76%
Draw or Norwich
46%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
29%
Norwich wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
81%
Southampton 2+ goals
50%
Southampton 3+ goals
24%
Norwich 1+ goals
62%
Norwich 2+ goals
26%
Norwich 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
71%
Norwich (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.42 · 152 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.27 + Norwich defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.68

Norwich attack 0.55 + Southampton defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Southampton scores more
54%
level
24%
Norwich scores more
22%

Southampton at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southampton vs Norwich

Southampton beat Norwich 2-1 in Premier League on December 4, 2019.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.