Southampton 3–2 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Liverpool

S. Mané 86', 64'

G. Pellè 83'

D. Sturridge 22'

Philippe Coutinho 17'

3/20/2016

Premier League · Round 31St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Southampton25%

×Draw22%

Liverpool52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.90

Southampton

1.25

Liverpool

1.90

Liverpool creates 52% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 33 away

1.19

creates per match

1.62

2.17

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Southampton

1.19

Liverpool

1.62

allows per match

Southampton

2.17

Liverpool

1.31

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.19scores more

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

48%

Southampton or Liverpool

78%

Draw or Liverpool

75%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

10%

Liverpool wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

71%

Southampton 2+ goals

36%

Southampton 3+ goals

13%

Liverpool 1+ goals

85%

Liverpool 2+ goals

56%

Liverpool 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

32%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 8 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.19 + Liverpool defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Liverpool attack 1.62 + Southampton defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Southampton scores more

25%

level

22%

Liverpool scores more

52%

Liverpool at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. Pellè

Southampton · F

9.2

Match Events

17'

Philippe Coutinho↳ A. Lallana

22'

D. Sturridge↳ D. Origi

25'

Dejan Lovren

46'

S. Mané← D. Tadić

46'

V. Wanyama← J. Clasie

46'

48'

49'

64'

69'

J. Ward-Prowse← Oriol Romeu

70'

C. Benteke← D. Sturridge

83'

G. Pellè↳ S. Long

86'

Sadio Mané

86'

S. Mané↳ G. Pellè

87'

S. Ojo← J. Allen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonLiverpool

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots17

3Corners5

0Fouls0

Shots

16Total Shots17

5On Target8

6Off Target3

5Blocked6

9Inside Box10

7Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

466Total Passes485

379Accurate Passes385

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2