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South Shields vs Buxton — League #59 2026

South Shields
South Shields
CANC
15:00
Buxton
Buxton
11/7/2020League #59League #59 · Northern - 11Mariners Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Shields30%
×Draw36%
Buxton34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Shields
0.74
Buxton
0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

South Shields
0.80
Buxton
1.00

allows per match

South Shields
0.60
Buxton
0.67

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par
Buxton+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Buxton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

South Shields or draw
66%
South Shields or Buxton
64%
Draw or Buxton
70%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+
9%
Buxton wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals
52%
South Shields 2+ goals
17%
South Shields 3+ goals
4%
Buxton 1+ goals
55%
Buxton 2+ goals
19%
Buxton 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)
47%
Buxton (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Buxton away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 0.80 + Buxton defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Buxton attack 1.00 + South Shields defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

South Shields scores more
30%
level
36%
Buxton scores more
34%

Buxton at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Buxton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: South Shields host Buxton

November 7, 2020: South Shields take on Buxton in League #59. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

South Shields host Buxton at Mariners Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.