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South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder — Victoria NPL 2026

South Melbourne
South Melbourne
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
6/13/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 17Lakeside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

South Melbourne46%
×Draw23%
Dandenong Thunder30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Melbourne
1.75
Dandenong Thunder
1.37

South Melbourne creates 28% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 86 away

creates per match

South Melbourne
1.67
Dandenong Thunder
1.45

allows per match

South Melbourne
1.29
Dandenong Thunder
1.83

finishing

South Melbourne+0.00on par
Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Melbourne ↓

Dandenong Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

South Melbourne or draw
70%
South Melbourne or Dandenong Thunder
77%
Draw or Dandenong Thunder
54%

Winning margin

South Melbourne wins by 2+
25%
Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

South Melbourne 1+ goals
83%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
52%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
25%
Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
75%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
40%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

South Melbourne (draw refunded)
61%
Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Melbourne at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

Dandenong Thunder away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.83 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Melbourne attack 1.67 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.45 + South Melbourne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

South Melbourne scores more
46%
level
23%
Dandenong Thunder scores more
30%

South Melbourne at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder

South Melbourne beat Dandenong Thunder 3-2 in Victoria NPL on June 13, 2023.

The match was played at Lakeside Stadium in Melbourne.