South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens — Victoria NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 63+ matches
South Melbourne45%
Bentleigh Greens31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
South Melbourne creates 26% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 63 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
South Melbourne ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
South Melbourne at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches
Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
South Melbourne attack 1.67 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67
Bentleigh Greens attack 1.37 + South Melbourne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
South Melbourne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Heidelberg United
Avondale
Green GullyBentleigh Greens
Oakleigh Cannons
Hume CitySouth Melbourne
Dandenong City
Port Melbourne
Melbourne Knights
Altona Magic
Dandenong Thunder
Kingston City
Pascoe ValeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
South Melbourne host Bentleigh Greens on Saturday, 22 May 2021 at 09:00. The match is part of the Victoria NPL 2026/2027 season.
South Melbourne 1 – 1 Bentleigh Greens
South Melbourne and Bentleigh Greens drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL on May 22, 2021.
Goals: P. Waring (20'), M. Jankovic (64' pen).
The match was played at Lakeside Stadium in Melbourne.