South Korea vs United Arab Emirates — Asian Cup 2019
Both teams score in 77% of United Arab Emirates’s matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
South Korea53%
United Arab Emirates24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
South Korea creates 60% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
South Korea ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
South Korea at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches
United Arab Emirates away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
South Korea attack 1.80 + United Arab Emirates defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73
United Arab Emirates attack 1.17 + South Korea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
South Korea at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "South Korea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- South Korea and United Arab Emirates have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
Qatar
Jordan
Iran
Australia
Japan
Uzbekistan
Iraq
Saudi ArabiaSouth Korea
BahrainUnited Arab Emirates
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IndiaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
South Korea host United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, 20 January 2027 at 14:00. The match is part of the Asian Cup 2019/2020 season.
South Korea face United Arab Emirates (Asian Cup)
Asian Cup returns with South Korea hosting United Arab Emirates. Match starts January 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
South Korea host United Arab Emirates at King Saud University Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.