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Costa del Este vs Tauro FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Costa del Este
Costa del Este
FT
3 – 0
Tauro FC
Tauro FC
10/5/2019Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 11Nuevo Estadio Maracaná de Panamá (Ciudad de Panamá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Costa del Este35%
×Draw28%
Tauro FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Costa del Este
1.16
Tauro FC
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 139 away

creates per match

Costa del Este
1.23
Tauro FC
1.21

allows per match

Costa del Este
1.15
Tauro FC
1.08

finishing

Costa del Este+0.00on par
Tauro FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa del Este ↓

Tauro FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Costa del Este or draw
64%
Costa del Este or Tauro FC
72%
Draw or Tauro FC
65%

Winning margin

Costa del Este wins by 2+
15%
Tauro FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Costa del Este 1+ goals
69%
Costa del Este 2+ goals
32%
Costa del Este 3+ goals
11%
Tauro FC 1+ goals
69%
Tauro FC 2+ goals
33%
Tauro FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Costa del Este (draw refunded)
49%
Tauro FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa del Este at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 114 matches

Tauro FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa del Este attack 1.23 + Tauro FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tauro FC attack 1.21 + Costa del Este defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Costa del Este scores more
35%
level
28%
Tauro FC scores more
36%

Tauro FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tauro FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Costa del Este vs Tauro FC

Costa del Este beat Tauro FC 3-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Maracaná de Panamá (Ciudad de Panamá).