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South Hobart II vs University of Tasmania — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

South Hobart II
South Hobart II
FT
4 – 2
University of Tasmania
University of Tasmania
3/24/2024Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 2Darcy Street Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

South Hobart II67%
×Draw14%
University of Tasmania18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Hobart II
3.94
University of Tasmania
2.13

South Hobart II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

South Hobart II
4.00
University of Tasmania
2.17

allows per match

South Hobart II
2.08
University of Tasmania
3.88

finishing

South Hobart II+0.00on par
University of Tasmania+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Hobart II ↓

University of Tasmania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
84%16%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

South Hobart II or draw
82%
South Hobart II or University of Tasmania
86%
Draw or University of Tasmania
33%

Winning margin

South Hobart II wins by 2+
49%
University of Tasmania wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

South Hobart II 1+ goals
98%
South Hobart II 2+ goals
89%
South Hobart II 3+ goals
72%
University of Tasmania 1+ goals
88%
University of Tasmania 2+ goals
63%
University of Tasmania 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

South Hobart II (draw refunded)
79%
University of Tasmania (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Hobart II at home — creates 4.00, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

University of Tasmania away — creates 2.17, concedes 3.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Hobart II attack 4.00 + University of Tasmania defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.94

University of Tasmania attack 2.17 + South Hobart II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

South Hobart II scores more
67%
level
14%
University of Tasmania scores more
18%

South Hobart II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "South Hobart II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Southern Championship: South Hobart II 4–2 University of Tasmania

South Hobart II beat University of Tasmania 4-2 in Tasmania Southern Championship on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Darcy Street Ground in South Hobart.