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South Cardiff vs West Wallsend — NNSW League 1 2026

South Cardiff
South Cardiff
FT
4 – 2
West Wallsend
West Wallsend
3/23/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 6Ulinga Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

South Cardiff27%
×Draw21%
West Wallsend52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Cardiff
1.56
West Wallsend
2.21

West Wallsend creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

South Cardiff
1.29
West Wallsend
1.89

allows per match

South Cardiff
2.54
West Wallsend
1.82

finishing

South Cardiff+0.00on par
West Wallsend+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Cardiff ↓

West Wallsend →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

South Cardiff or draw
48%
South Cardiff or West Wallsend
79%
Draw or West Wallsend
73%

Winning margin

South Cardiff wins by 2+
13%
West Wallsend wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

South Cardiff 1+ goals
79%
South Cardiff 2+ goals
46%
South Cardiff 3+ goals
21%
West Wallsend 1+ goals
89%
West Wallsend 2+ goals
65%
West Wallsend 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

South Cardiff (draw refunded)
34%
West Wallsend (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Cardiff at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.54 · 28 matches

West Wallsend away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Cardiff attack 1.29 + West Wallsend defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

West Wallsend attack 1.89 + South Cardiff defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

South Cardiff scores more
27%
level
21%
West Wallsend scores more
52%

West Wallsend at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "West Wallsend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Cardiff vs West Wallsend

South Cardiff beat West Wallsend 4-2 in NNSW League 1 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Ulinga Oval in Newcastle.