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South Bend Lions vs Louisville City II — USL League Two 2026

South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
PST
23:00
Louisville City II
Louisville City II
6/3/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 19South Bend Lions Stadium (South Bend, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

South Bend Lions39%
×Draw22%
Louisville City II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Bend Lions
1.76
Louisville City II
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 6 away

creates per match

South Bend Lions
1.52
Louisville City II
1.83

allows per match

South Bend Lions
1.67
Louisville City II
2.00

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par
Louisville City II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Louisville City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw
61%
South Bend Lions or Louisville City II
78%
Draw or Louisville City II
61%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+
20%
Louisville City II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals
83%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
52%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
26%
Louisville City II 1+ goals
83%
Louisville City II 2+ goals
52%
Louisville City II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
50%
Louisville City II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Louisville City II away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Louisville City II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Louisville City II attack 1.83 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

South Bend Lions scores more
39%
level
22%
Louisville City II scores more
39%

South Bend Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "South Bend Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Bend Lions face Louisville City II (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with South Bend Lions hosting Louisville City II. Match starts June 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

South Bend Lions host Louisville City II at South Bend Lions Stadium (South Bend, Indiana).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.