Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

South Bend Lions vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
PST
23:00
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
6/16/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 32South Bend Lions Stadium (South Bend, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

South Bend Lions38%
×Draw26%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Bend Lions
1.36
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 5 away

creates per match

South Bend Lions
1.52
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.00

allows per match

South Bend Lions
1.67
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.20

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par
Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Cincinnati Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw
64%
South Bend Lions or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
74%
Draw or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
62%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+
17%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals
74%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
39%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
16%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
74%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
38%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
51%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 1.00 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

South Bend Lions scores more
38%
level
26%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
36%

South Bend Lions at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "South Bend Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: South Bend Lions host Cincinnati Dutch Lions

June 16, 2020: South Bend Lions take on Cincinnati Dutch Lions in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

South Bend Lions host Cincinnati Dutch Lions at South Bend Lions Stadium (South Bend, Indiana).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.