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Newry City AFC vs Institute — Championship 2017

Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
FT
3 – 1
Institute
Institute
2/17/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Promotion Round - 2The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Newry City AFC42%
×Draw22%
Institute35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newry City AFC
1.83
Institute
1.65

Newry City AFC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Newry City AFC
1.67
Institute
2.29

allows per match

Newry City AFC
1.00
Institute
2.00

finishing

Newry City AFC+0.00on par
Institute+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newry City AFC ↓

Institute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Newry City AFC or draw
65%
Newry City AFC or Institute
78%
Draw or Institute
58%

Winning margin

Newry City AFC wins by 2+
23%
Institute wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Newry City AFC 1+ goals
84%
Newry City AFC 2+ goals
54%
Newry City AFC 3+ goals
28%
Institute 1+ goals
81%
Institute 2+ goals
49%
Institute 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Newry City AFC (draw refunded)
55%
Institute (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newry City AFC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Institute away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newry City AFC attack 1.67 + Institute defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Institute attack 2.29 + Newry City AFC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Newry City AFC scores more
42%
level
22%
Institute scores more
35%

Newry City AFC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Newry City AFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Newry City AFC 3–1 Institute

Newry City AFC beat Institute 3-1 in Championship on February 17, 2018.

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Newry.