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Sonsonate vs FAS — Primera Division 2019

Sonsonate
Sonsonate
CANC
19:00
FAS
FAS
4/29/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 20Estadio Anna Mercedes Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sonsonate31%
×Draw27%
FAS42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonsonate
1.11
FAS
1.35

FAS creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 156 away

creates per match

Sonsonate
1.06
FAS
1.28

allows per match

Sonsonate
1.42
FAS
1.17

finishing

Sonsonate+0.00on par
FAS+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsonate ↓

FAS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sonsonate or draw
58%
Sonsonate or FAS
73%
Draw or FAS
69%

Winning margin

Sonsonate wins by 2+
12%
FAS wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sonsonate 1+ goals
67%
Sonsonate 2+ goals
30%
Sonsonate 3+ goals
10%
FAS 1+ goals
74%
FAS 2+ goals
39%
FAS 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sonsonate (draw refunded)
42%
FAS (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsonate at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

FAS away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsonate attack 1.06 + FAS defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

FAS attack 1.28 + Sonsonate defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sonsonate scores more
31%
level
27%
FAS scores more
42%

FAS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sonsonate vs FAS — Match Preview

Sonsonate face FAS on April 29, 2020 in this Primera Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sonsonate host FAS at Estadio Anna Mercedes Campos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.