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Sonsbeck vs Union Nettetal — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sonsbeck
Sonsbeck
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
12/11/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 21Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sonsbeck52%
×Draw22%
Union Nettetal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonsbeck
2.04
Union Nettetal
1.42

Sonsbeck creates 44% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sonsbeck
1.86
Union Nettetal
1.34

allows per match

Sonsbeck
1.49
Union Nettetal
2.23

finishing

Sonsbeck+0.00on par
Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsbeck ↓

Union Nettetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sonsbeck or draw
73%
Sonsbeck or Union Nettetal
78%
Draw or Union Nettetal
48%

Winning margin

Sonsbeck wins by 2+
30%
Union Nettetal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sonsbeck 1+ goals
87%
Sonsbeck 2+ goals
60%
Sonsbeck 3+ goals
33%
Union Nettetal 1+ goals
76%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
41%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sonsbeck (draw refunded)
66%
Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsbeck at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsbeck attack 1.86 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + Sonsbeck defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sonsbeck scores more
52%
level
22%
Union Nettetal scores more
27%

Sonsbeck at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sonsbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Sonsbeck 5–1 Union Nettetal

Sonsbeck beat Union Nettetal 5-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark in Sonsbeck.