Sonsbeck 2–2 TVD Velbert: Result & Stats

Sonsbeck

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

TVD Velbert

11/26/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 19Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sonsbeck50%

×Draw22%

TVD Velbert28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonsbeckExpected goals in this matchTVD Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.44

Sonsbeck

1.96

TVD Velbert

1.44

Sonsbeck creates 36% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 72 away

1.86

creates per match

1.38

1.49

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Sonsbeck

1.86

TVD Velbert

1.38

allows per match

Sonsbeck

1.49

TVD Velbert

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sonsbeck+0.00on par

TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsbeck ↓

TVD Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sonsbeck or draw

72%

Sonsbeck or TVD Velbert

78%

Draw or TVD Velbert

50%

Winning margin

Sonsbeck wins by 2+

28%

TVD Velbert wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sonsbeck 1+ goals

86%

Sonsbeck 2+ goals

58%

Sonsbeck 3+ goals

31%

TVD Velbert 1+ goals

76%

TVD Velbert 2+ goals

42%

TVD Velbert 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sonsbeck (draw refunded)

64%

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsbeck at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsbeck attack 1.86 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.96

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Sonsbeck defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sonsbeck scores more

50%

level

22%

TVD Velbert scores more

28%

Sonsbeck at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sonsbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff