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Song Lam Nghe An vs Da Nang — Cup 2019

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Da Nang
Da Nangadvanced
3/13/2024CupCup · Round of 16Sân vận động Vinh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An36%
×Draw27%
Da Nang37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
1.25
Da Nang
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.67
Da Nang
1.00

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.56
Da Nang
0.83

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Da Nang+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Da Nang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
63%
Song Lam Nghe An or Da Nang
73%
Draw or Da Nang
64%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
16%
Da Nang wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
71%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
36%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
13%
Da Nang 1+ goals
72%
Da Nang 2+ goals
37%
Da Nang 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
49%
Da Nang (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Da Nang away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.67 + Da Nang defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.25

Da Nang attack 1.00 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
36%
level
27%
Da Nang scores more
37%

Da Nang at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Song Lam Nghe An vs Da Nang

Da Nang beat Song Lam Nghe An 1-0 in Cup on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Vinh in Vinh.