Somozas vs UD Ourense: Preview & Prediction

Somozas

CANC

00:00

UD Ourense

4/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio Alcalde Manuel Candocia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Somozas41%

×Draw28%

UD Ourense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SomozasExpected goals in this matchUD Ourense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.06

Somozas

1.26

UD Ourense

1.06

Somozas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 79 away

1.38

creates per match

0.97

1.15

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Somozas

1.38

UD Ourense

0.97

allows per match

Somozas

1.15

UD Ourense

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Somozas+0.00on par

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Somozas ↓

UD Ourense →

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Somozas or draw

69%

Somozas or UD Ourense

72%

Draw or UD Ourense

59%

Winning margin

Somozas wins by 2+

18%

UD Ourense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Somozas 1+ goals

72%

Somozas 2+ goals

36%

Somozas 3+ goals

13%

UD Ourense 1+ goals

65%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

29%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Somozas (draw refunded)

57%

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Somozas at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

UD Ourense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Somozas attack 1.38 + UD Ourense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

UD Ourense attack 0.97 + Somozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Somozas scores more

41%

level

28%

UD Ourense scores more

31%

Somozas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Somozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Somozas host UD Ourense

April 9, 2020: Somozas take on UD Ourense in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Somozas host UD Ourense at Estadio Alcalde Manuel Candocia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Somozas vs UD Ourense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Somozas host UD Ourense