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Sololá vs Antigua GFC — Liga Nacional 2019

Sololá
Sololá
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
8/11/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 3Estadio Xamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sololá36%
×Draw27%
Antigua GFC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sololá
1.24
Antigua GFC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 156 away

creates per match

Sololá
1.13
Antigua GFC
1.11

allows per match

Sololá
1.43
Antigua GFC
1.35

finishing

Sololá+0.00on par
Antigua GFC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sololá ↓

Antigua GFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sololá or draw
63%
Sololá or Antigua GFC
73%
Draw or Antigua GFC
64%

Winning margin

Sololá wins by 2+
15%
Antigua GFC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sololá 1+ goals
71%
Sololá 2+ goals
35%
Sololá 3+ goals
13%
Antigua GFC 1+ goals
72%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
36%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sololá (draw refunded)
49%
Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sololá at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Antigua GFC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.35 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sololá attack 1.13 + Antigua GFC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Antigua GFC attack 1.11 + Sololá defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sololá scores more
36%
level
27%
Antigua GFC scores more
37%

Antigua GFC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Antigua GFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Sololá 1–2 Antigua GFC

Antigua GFC beat Sololá 2-1 in Liga Nacional on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Xamba in Sololá.