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Söll vs Kirchbichl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Söll
Söll
PST
22:00
Kirchbichl
Kirchbichl
5/29/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 26Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Söll27%
×Draw22%
Kirchbichl51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Söll
1.41
Kirchbichl
2.02

Kirchbichl creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 44 away

creates per match

Söll
0.64
Kirchbichl
1.77

allows per match

Söll
2.27
Kirchbichl
2.18

finishing

Söll+0.00on par
Kirchbichl+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Söll ↓

Kirchbichl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Söll or draw
49%
Söll or Kirchbichl
78%
Draw or Kirchbichl
73%

Winning margin

Söll wins by 2+
12%
Kirchbichl wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Söll 1+ goals
76%
Söll 2+ goals
41%
Söll 3+ goals
17%
Kirchbichl 1+ goals
87%
Kirchbichl 2+ goals
60%
Kirchbichl 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Söll (draw refunded)
34%
Kirchbichl (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Söll at home — creates 0.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

Kirchbichl away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Söll attack 0.64 + Kirchbichl defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kirchbichl attack 1.77 + Söll defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Söll scores more
27%
level
22%
Kirchbichl scores more
51%

Kirchbichl at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kirchbichl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Söll host Kirchbichl

May 29, 2020: Söll take on Kirchbichl in Landesliga - Tirol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Söll host Kirchbichl at Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.