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Solin vs Dinamo Zagreb II — First NL 2018

Solin
Solin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Zagreb II
Dinamo Zagreb II
10/13/2018First NLFirst NL · Round 8Stadion pokraj Jadra (Solin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Solin49%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solin
1.52
Dinamo Zagreb II
1.02

Solin creates 49% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 55 away

creates per match

Solin
1.41
Dinamo Zagreb II
0.93

allows per match

Solin
1.11
Dinamo Zagreb II
1.62

finishing

Solin+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solin ↓

Dinamo Zagreb II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Solin or draw
75%
Solin or Dinamo Zagreb II
74%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb II
51%

Winning margin

Solin wins by 2+
25%
Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Solin 1+ goals
78%
Solin 2+ goals
45%
Solin 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Solin (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solin at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

Dinamo Zagreb II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solin attack 1.41 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 0.93 + Solin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Solin scores more
49%
level
26%
Dinamo Zagreb II scores more
25%

Solin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Solin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Solin vs Dinamo Zagreb II

Solin and Dinamo Zagreb II drew 1-1 in First NL on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion pokraj Jadra (Solin).