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Soleil vs Loto Popo — Championnat National 2019

Soleil
Soleil
FT
2 – 2
Loto Popo
Loto Popo
12/12/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 8Stade de Lokossa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Soleil29%
×Draw29%
Loto Popo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soleil
0.95
Loto Popo
1.20

Loto Popo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 93 away

creates per match

Soleil
1.11
Loto Popo
0.99

allows per match

Soleil
1.41
Loto Popo
0.78

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par
Loto Popo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

Loto Popo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Soleil or draw
58%
Soleil or Loto Popo
71%
Draw or Loto Popo
71%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+
10%
Loto Popo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals
61%
Soleil 2+ goals
25%
Soleil 3+ goals
7%
Loto Popo 1+ goals
70%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
34%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)
41%
Loto Popo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Loto Popo away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.78 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.11 + Loto Popo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Loto Popo attack 0.99 + Soleil defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Soleil scores more
29%
level
29%
Loto Popo scores more
42%

Loto Popo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Soleil 2–2 Loto Popo

Soleil and Loto Popo drew 2-2 in Championnat National on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Lokossa in Lokossa.