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Soleil vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

Soleil
Soleil
FT
1 – 1
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
3/19/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 2Stade de Lokossa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Soleil42%
×Draw27%
Dynamo Unacob31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soleil
1.32
Dynamo Unacob
1.09

Soleil creates 21% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 87 away

creates per match

Soleil
1.12
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

Soleil
1.37
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Soleil or draw
69%
Soleil or Dynamo Unacob
73%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
58%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+
19%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals
73%
Soleil 2+ goals
38%
Soleil 3+ goals
15%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
66%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
30%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)
58%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.37 · 59 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.12 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Soleil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Soleil scores more
42%
level
27%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
31%

Soleil at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Soleil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Soleil vs Dynamo Unacob

Soleil and Dynamo Unacob drew 1-1 in Championnat National on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Lokossa in Lokossa.