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Solares vs Tropezón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Solares
Solares
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tropezón
Tropezón
12/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Campo Municipal La Estación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Solares27%
×Draw27%
Tropezón46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solares
1.00
Tropezón
1.38

Tropezón creates 38% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 94 away

creates per match

Solares
0.90
Tropezón
1.55

allows per match

Solares
1.20
Tropezón
1.09

finishing

Solares+0.00on par
Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solares ↓

Tropezón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Solares or draw
54%
Solares or Tropezón
73%
Draw or Tropezón
73%

Winning margin

Solares wins by 2+
10%
Tropezón wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Solares 1+ goals
63%
Solares 2+ goals
26%
Solares 3+ goals
8%
Tropezón 1+ goals
75%
Tropezón 2+ goals
40%
Tropezón 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Solares (draw refunded)
37%
Tropezón (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solares at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 61 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solares attack 0.90 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Solares defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Solares scores more
27%
level
27%
Tropezón scores more
46%

Tropezón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Solares vs Tropezón

Tropezón beat Solares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Estación in Medio Cudeyo.