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SOL vs AFAD — Ligue 1 2019

SOL
SOL
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AFAD
AFAD
11/23/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

SOL30%
×Draw30%
AFAD40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL
0.97
AFAD
1.16

AFAD creates 20% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 93 away

creates per match

SOL
1.14
AFAD
1.14

allows per match

SOL
1.18
AFAD
0.81

finishing

SOL+0.00on par
AFAD+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL ↓

AFAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SOL or draw
60%
SOL or AFAD
70%
Draw or AFAD
70%

Winning margin

SOL wins by 2+
11%
AFAD wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SOL 1+ goals
62%
SOL 2+ goals
25%
SOL 3+ goals
7%
AFAD 1+ goals
69%
AFAD 2+ goals
32%
AFAD 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SOL (draw refunded)
43%
AFAD (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 88 matches

AFAD away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.81 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL attack 1.14 + AFAD defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

AFAD attack 1.14 + SOL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SOL scores more
30%
level
30%
AFAD scores more
40%

AFAD at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AFAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: SOL 1–1 AFAD

SOL and AFAD drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.